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2020 domestic 5G market demand forecast

Time: 2020-06-03
       1. Overview
       With the rapid development of the mobile Internet, more and more devices are connected to the mobile network, new services and applications emerge one after another, and the ensuing surge in mobile data traffic also brings serious challenges to the network, 4G network has gradually been unable to meet the needs of the people, so the construction of 5G is imperative. 5G network is mainly composed of three parts, namely, the wireless network, the bearer network and the core network, and the construction of 5G will be a technological upgrade of the wireless network and the bearer network, the use of optical modules also need to be upgraded. Wireless network and bearer network technology upgrades, the use of optical modules also need to be upgraded, in which the base station of the wireless network, the pre-transmission optical module will be upgraded from 10G to 25G optical modules. In 2020, the domestic 5G base station will enter a large-scale construction phase, the front transmission 25G optical module demand will also appear explosive growth.
       2. 25G Optical Module Demand Estimation
       According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), China has opened 126,000 5G base stations in 2019. on March 24, 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) issued the Notice on Promoting the Accelerated Development of 5G, which further supports the acceleration of the construction of 5G in the policy, and it is expected that the number of base station construction for the whole year can reach more than 700-800,000 stations.
Forecast of the number of domestic 5G base stations in the past 5 years
Figure 1 Forecast of the number of domestic 5G base stations in the past 5 years
       Based on the above forecast, according to the average demand of 10 optical modules for a single base station, there will be more than 8 million front-end optical modules in 2020.5G front-end transmission is mainly based on two schemes, namely, fiber direct drive and passive wavelength division, in which the fiber direct drive scheme uses mainly 25G gray optical modules, SFP28 25G SR optical modules with a transmission distance of 300m, and SFP28 25G LR and 25G Bidi optical modules with a transmission distance of 10km. LR and 25G Bidi optical modules with a transmission distance of 10km. And the optical module used in the passive wavelength division scheme is 25G color optical module SFP28 25G CWDM optical module. According to the 5G spectrum single base station needs to use 6 pairs of 25G interface calculation, if the use of 25G gray optical module accounted for 40%, 25G color optical module accounted for 60%, then in 2020 the number of 25G gray optical module needs to be 3.36-3.84 million, the demand for 25G color optical module 5.04-5.76 million, the demand for the number of 2020 is expected to be in 2020 a year at the level of ten million. The following three major carriers in the first quarter of 2020 part of the procurement project can also be corroborated, 2020 25G optical module domestic market demand is unprecedentedly huge, but also the major optical module manufacturers to develop customers, seize the 5G market share of an important year.
Table 1 Part of the 5G procurement projects of the three major operators in the first quarter of 2020
發(fā)標(biāo)時(shí)間 運(yùn)營商 項(xiàng)目名稱 采購內(nèi)容
24年1月3日 中國移動(dòng) 2019年—2020年青海移動(dòng)無源波分設(shè)備框架 共計(jì)2000套無源波分設(shè)備，其中包含12000個(gè)25G彩模塊
24年2月14日 中國移動(dòng) 遼寧公司2020年無源波分設(shè)備招標(biāo)采購項(xiàng)目 共計(jì)8000套1：12雙星型無源波分設(shè)備，其中包含48000個(gè)25G彩光模塊
24年2月20日 中國移動(dòng) 2020年海南公司面向5G前傳的25Gb／s無源粗波分框架采購項(xiàng)目 共計(jì)3000套無源波分設(shè)備，其中包含18000個(gè)25G彩光模塊
24年2月21日 中國移動(dòng) 北京公司2020年無源波分采購項(xiàng)目 共計(jì)11909套無源波分設(shè)備，其中包含44454個(gè)25G彩光模塊
24年3月13日 中國移動(dòng) 江蘇公司2019年度5G無源波分彩光設(shè)備班車式采購項(xiàng)目 共計(jì)16920套無源波分設(shè)備，其中包含67680個(gè)25G彩光模塊
24年3月18日 中國移動(dòng) 四川公司2020年—2021年無源波分復(fù)用設(shè)備集采項(xiàng)目 共計(jì)19921套無源波分設(shè)備，其中包含109646個(gè)25G SFP＋彩光模塊
24年3月24日 中國移動(dòng) 重慶公司無源波分系統(tǒng)采購申請 共計(jì)8800套無源波分設(shè)備其中包含49200個(gè)25G彩光模塊
        Beginning in 2019, Motek Optoelectronics has started mass production of 25G optical modules, in line with the requirements of China's 5G network pre-transmission technology method, the product family can be provided with the following models, welcome to inquire about.
Table 2 25G SFP28 Optical Modules available from Motech Optoelectronics
產(chǎn)品型號(hào) 封裝類型 傳輸速率 應(yīng)用 傳輸介質(zhì) 傳輸距離
SFP-25G-SR SFP28 25G 25GBase-SR MMF 100m
SFP-25G-SR SFP28 25G 25GBase-SR/CPRI MMF 100m
SFP-25G-CSR SFP28 25G 25GBase-CSR MMF 400m
SFP-25G-CSR SFP28 25G 25GBase-CSR/CPRI MMF 400m
SFP-10/25G-SR SFP28 10G/25G 25GBase-CSR/10GBase-SR/CPR MMF 100m
SFP-10/25G-CSR SFP28 10G/25G 25GBase-CSR/10GBase-SR/CPRI MMF 400m
SFP-25G-LR SFP28 25G 25GBase-LR SMF 10km
SFP-25G-BIDI-LR SFP28 25G 25GBase-LR SMF 10km
SFP-25G-CWDM-LR SFP28 25G 25GBase-LR SMF 10km
SFP-10G/25G-LR SFP28 10G/25G 25GBase-LR 10GBase-LR SMF 10km
SFP-10G/25G-BIDI-LR SFP28 10G/25G 25GBase-LR 10GBase-LR SMF 10km
SFP-10G/25G-CWDM-LR SFP28 10G/25G 25GBase-LR 10GBase-LR SMF 10km
        Moduletek Limited is at your service.
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